Friday, January 22, 2010

Bernanke In The Cross Hairs

A number of prominent Democrats have signaled that they will not support Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's re-nomination to the Fed. They say they want to purge the government of anyone who had a role in the banking crisis. My guess this upsurge in anti-Bernanke sentiment may be more a reaction to the upset victory by Republican Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts than the qualifications of Mr. Bernanke. The stunning loss of the "Kennedy Seat" and the apparent derailing of the government's health-care takeover, has left many in the Democratic party searching for a new mantra. That mantra appears to be congealing into "We inherited these problems with evil bankers from George W. Bush, and anyone associated with the Bush Administration must go." That argument would seem to be a little dog-eared after twelve months. However, because Ben Bernanke was appointed by George W. Bush and was on the job in the early months of the banking crisis, he now has cross hairs on his back. The thought that politics would remove Mr. Bernanke from his critical position at the Fed is chilling. Economists from both sides of the aisle have extolled Mr. Bernanke's leadership of the Fed during these most difficult times. Indeed, the financial markets would not take kindly to the forced retirement of Chairman Bernanke. If those people who are now opposing Bernanke were to triumph over their own President's endorsement, in my judgment political and economic chaos would reign. I believe a significant part of the recent tailspin in the markets is due to worries that there may be a Bernanke revolt underway. Let's hope that less political, cooler heads prevail, or we may find ourselves in the middle of another financial crisis.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Greg:

This is all part of the cleansing process. Too much debt and not enough capital.

Bernanke has tried to fight it, but he cannot win. There is not enough capital in the world. The "credit" crisis led to the "economic" crisis which is now fueling the "funding" crisis.

This has been your stock market for the last 10 months:

Act 1, Scene 1: Bernanke and his co-pilot sitting in a cockpit


Ben: Unemployment rate?

Navigator: 17% and rising

Ben: Credit demand?

Navigator: Tumbling in excess of 6% annually

Ben: Foreclosure rate?

Navigator: 1 is occurring every 13 seconds here in the States

Ben: Fed funds rate?

Navigator: 0

Ben: Ten year yield?

Navigator: 3.5%

Ben: Ok, I’ll make the call





Act 1, Scene 2: JPM Trading floor



JPM: Trading floor

Ben: Its Ben

JPM: Hold on I’ll transfer you





Act 1, Scene 3: Somewhere in a back office in JPM



JPM: Hi Ben

Ben: We need to throw some money at the problem

JPM: OK

Ben: Just made the accounting entry, $15 billion MBS buy-back coming at ya

JPM: We’ll take care of it. Thanks Ben





Act 1, Scene 4: Phone conversation b/w JPM and Goldman



JPM: Just got a fresh $15b from Ben, how you want to play it?

Goldman: Normal routine sound good?

JPM: Yes, punish the VIX, fade the dollar, and ramp the futures?

Goldman: Exactly.

JPM: Shouldn’t we worry about P/E’s into thin air?

Goldman: Rookie; haven’t you heard of the Goldman “Conviction Buy List”?

JPM: Nice call.

Goldman: I’ll put in a call to CNBC and tell them Alcoa’s report was huge.

JPM: Sounds good.

The sooner the shell games are faced, the sooner we can move on.

Bernanke's retirement is a GOOD thing. Embrace it.

Take care,
Dave G

killben said...

Yes the market may go into a tail spin. We are OK with it! After all it is highly overvalued!!

It is not a question of politics.

It is simply this ..

WE DO NOT WANT AN EPITOME OF MORAL HAZARD AT THE HELM OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, MORE SO ONE WHO HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ONCOMING TRAIN WRECK, WHO HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN WRONG IN ANALYSING AND ACTING ON THE ECONOMIC SITUATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE CRISIS AND WHO REFUSES TO ACKNOWLEDGE AND LEARN FROM HIS MISTAKE.

PLEASE DO NOT ADD YOUR SPIN OF POLITICS TO THIS SIMPLE ARGUMENT .. HE IS NOT FIT FOR THE JOB BECAUSE .. DUE TO HIS INABILITY TO SEE WHAT CAN HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD WE CANNOT EXPECT HIM TO SET THE RIGHT POLICIES

IndyFriend said...

You all are nuts! What, if anything will be accomplished by removal of Bernanke? And as much I dislike Geithner, a guy who has never actually worked in banking or brokerages, it does no good to remove him either.

No solution at the time of the crisis was "perfect"--all had their own little bit of bitterness to swallow. The efforts of the Fed and Treasury were made to slow and extend the time it took to get to the final destination with hopes that the House, Senate, and Executive branch would do some effective stimulating of the economy that would slow the house foreclosures etc. If anyone is at fault, it is our legislative branch for focusing too much on healthcare, and far too little on the economy and real jobs, not just shovel jobs that were going to happen anyhow... The Fed and Treasury bought the time so they could do something---Nothing happened, so now we pay. If you want to "fire" someone, wait until November and remove your representative or senator who has sorely let you down.