Tuesday, June 17, 2008

A Few Thoughts for Bank of America's Mr. Lewis

Our firm and clients have been riding with you for six to seven years. It has not always been easy since we have had to hold our collective breaths every time rumors started to fly that, yes Bank of America might be extending it product lines or its footprint by making yet another acquisition. Unfortunately, few of the rumors have turned out to be false. We have been with you when you belly-flopped our stock with your Fleet Boston purchase and genuflected our stock with your MBNA purchase. In each case, we held our collective noses because we are big believers in Peter Lynch's notion of "diworsification:" diversification and mergers oftentimes make a company "worse" not better. Through your aggressive program of "diworsification" we now own the bank with the biggest footprint and broadest product line of any bank in the US. But we are none the richer for your diworsification; your stock price is lower than it was six years ago. In our judgment, you are one decision away from joining your good friend Kennedy Thompson, late of Wachovia. That decision, as you know, is if you cut your dividend. If you cut your dividend, we will leave you and we won't be alone. It will prove that all that you have cobbled together over these last few years is a pile of rubbish -- the crown jewels were impostors, the gold was folly. If you can find the money in the middle of the subprime crisis to buy Lasalle National, Countrywide Financial, and put another couple of billion in China, you can keep paying the dividend. If you cut it, you will have proved, as so many analysts have said all along, that you didn't know what you were doing, and we will have to fall on our swords and admit that we followed you. You said recently that the condition of the economy will dictate your dividend decisions. Wrong, with your spending spree you have asked us to believe that the future is bright, why would you need to cut the dividend if the future is bright? I don't like the tone of this piece anymore than you do, but I am giving you fair warning: if you cut the dividend you'll be playing golf everyday with Kennedy Thompson. By all accounts, you are a good man; a man who loves banking, your employees, small business people, and your shareholders (I think the list is pretty long). This is a time to show boldness for your stakeholders interests. Lay down the gauntlet and say that Bank of America will not cut its dividend under your leadership. You cannot brag about your dividend hikes for a decade and wipe them all away in a year. That is pretty much what you said about your investment bankers actions. You decided on their behalf that you had had about a much fun in investment banking as you could stand. You know that is what many investors will decide about you and Bank of America if you wipe out five years of dividend increases. Wall Street is laying odds on you cutting the dividend. Why don't you prove them wrong for once by saying "the dividend is safe on my watch." Of course your investment bankers will say that that kind of statement is a foolish thing to do, but good grief how much bad advice are you going to take from them? They were the ones who told you all the smart things that are now blowing up in your face. The banking system needs someone to stand up and risk his own neck for the benefit of his shareholders. Why do you constantly leave that up to Wells Fargo. Why not just say it: "If the dividend goes, I go." At least you can leave with your dignity when this is all over. Nearly tw0-thirds of our client are at or near retirement. They need for you to stand firm for them. We can stand a few years of no increase, but please, stand firm for your shareholders. We have not given up on you. We believe you are the man to begin the healing process between investors and banks: do it with a dividend imperative, Mr. Lewis.

8 comments:

Dividends4Life said...

He told Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney that the dividend is safe. I agree with you, now is the time for him to deliver!

Link

Best Wishes,
D4L

Shawn Abigail said...

There have been a couple of dividend increases on Canadian banks this quarter. Also, and perhaps most interesting, when the Canadian central bank did not go ahead with an expected interest rate cut of 0.25%, the banks raised their rates by 0.25% to increase their margin.

Anonymous said...

A good Blog. It throws down a challenge. Are your words truth, is your heart true or have you as so many in the investment and banking world become politicians, full of promise but short on delivery? Well Mr. Lewis, can you pull it together and actually make a downpayment on your Golden Parachute or will you try to keep the office with platitudes and promises as you spend precious cash to grow your footprint. We have heard far too many empty promises for far too long.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you leave the dividend alone. I am a ex
employee you got fired for not making my daily goals in this great real estate market but Mr Lewis didn't get fired when the bank didn't meet their goals. So leave what little retirement I have left alone.

Indy Friend said...

Greg,

As I have commented numerous times on your blog, this problem is one that is of size. Since last year I have tried to balance your statements quantifying the credit problem only to sub-prime. On November 15 of last year I commented in your BAC blog that this was a dangerous stock. I have left bread crumbs of research referenced throughout my comments to your blogs. Pimco, Infectous Greed, The Big Picture, are among some of the more notable referenced. But if Bill Gross et al at PIMCO was not weighty enough, I don't know what it.

We have crossed into a new Epoch in the market. The significance is that epoch generally last 25-30 years, long enough for even the most seasoned of managers to make the mistake of thinking that a return to the mean is likely, simply because their data points are not far enough extended. The booming credit cycle that started in 1980 is one. The data spans most existing manager's career and gives a false impression that what has been for their whole career is what it always has been. It creates the ultimate value trap. And unfortunately, it has caught many a fine manager in the last 12 months.

Just as you and many of your caliber (very high, and respected) are exasperated and preparing to sell (as the discounted dividend/cash flow model fails its historic metrics), I will be flattening out my shorts and puts. Again. As I did in March and replaced in May.

I say this not smugly, but with a tinge of sadness, because there is a overlying message. The market is always in a state of ebb and flow. Some are small cycles, some are larger. Many will fool us into being so dogmatic in our approach, that we come to believe we've stumbled across the Holy Grail of investing. But in the end, the market succeeds in making fools of all of us who refuse to be open to new possibilities, and the possible changing of the tide. It had generally been coming in for the last 27 years in the financials. A monkey could have bought a random sampling of financials and made a fortune. Now the tide has been going out for about 12 months. And it is only the start. Yes financial will bottom. Perhaps soon. But the burn and scarring will impair the profits and earnings for much, much longer. There will be hearings, reregulation, a tightening of all credit standards, perhaps licensing of mortgage officers, credit officers, a new conservatism that will vanquish the taste for packaged product. All of which will cause a limping along the bottom for years to come. The bottoming of financials will not be the buy of the decade, but a poor appropriation of investment capital.

There is no room for hope in investing. Hope is a fine virtue in many other avenues of life, but will lose you money and clients in the harsh world of Wall Street.

I wish you well my friend, but please do not hope that BAC keeps their dividend. Hope they survive. But do so with no position.

Greg Donaldson said...

To the many people who have asked me directly about this blog, yes, I have sent a letter under our company's letterhead to Mr. Lewis. I suggest any of you who own the stock do the same thing. Remember, this is our company.

Anonymous said...

If BAC did nothing for another 6 years but did not cut the dividend, I'd consider it a successful investment by all standards. A 8% dividend + 1 or 2% for covered calls and I'd be very happy.

As obvious from Meredith's meeting(she would love to trash them if the odds favored it) that the dividend will not be cut in the near term.

That said, an extended downturn will force a dividend cut. It all depends on whether you are an extreme bear like indy and think we could be no better off a year from now.

What was a blue chip is now a speculation. Make your decision to sell based off that.

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